Buenos Aires, December 2, 2025 (NA) -- Argentina's trade balance is sounding alarms as the year-end approaches. The official data shows: from January to August 2025, exports reached USD 55.367 billion, representing a modest 6.2% year-over-year increase, while imports skyrocketed to USD 50.296 billion, a 32.1% jump compared to the same period the previous year. The current trade surplus of USD 5.071 billion looks insufficient to cover debt maturities, which alone for next year sum to almost USD 10 billion.
The country's need to accumulate genuine international reserves is precisely to avoid fully activating the refinancing wheel, and consequently, generating exchange rate instability. The purchase of imported consumer goods under the door-to-door regime, the so-called 'Shein effect', made a big difference. According to a report by the consulting firm Analytica, based on Indec data, imports via courier grew 389.5% year-on-year in July, reaching US$94 million. In the first seven months of 2025, these acquisitions totaled US$408 million, representing a 258.2% advance and almost doubling the total recorded in 2024. This figure is approaching the all-time high reached in 2022.
This was a desired effect for the government of Javier Milei. "We want all Argentines to be able to access more competitive prices, not just those who travel abroad," had stated Minister of Economy Luis Caputo when announcing that the limit per shipment increased from US$1,000 to US$3,000 per package, while personal imports of up to US$400 were exempt from tariffs, only having to pay VAT.
However, the increase in purchases abroad was also driven by the acquisition of vehicles, capital goods, and parts for industry, which 70% need imported inputs to be able to function.
"The focus should be on policies that encourage exportable production, open up new markets, and add value to our products," highlighted Gabriel Salomón, director of Jidoka.
"Imports are an essential engine for production and technological modernization. Capital goods, inputs, and technology that are not produced in the country are fundamental for our industries to be able to compete and, eventually, export more and with greater added value," he explained.
According to these specialists, the challenge is to achieve a more harmonious growth, where exports can expand at a pace that allows sustaining the level of imports necessary for development.
"Restricting imports would be a step backward that would affect productive capacity and long-term competitiveness. The focus should be on policies that encourage exportable production, open up new markets, and add value to our products," affirms Salomón.
The context shows that the increase in purchases abroad is driven by the acquisition of vehicles, capital goods, and parts for industry. However, this dynamic has also widened the trade deficit with key partners such as China and Brazil, generating concern among analysts about the pressure on the Central Bank's reserves.
External trade analysts do not see an export bias behind the fiscal restrictions and point to the VAT refund system as a paradigmatic case in this regard. Although sales abroad are exempt from this tax, exporters must finance the amount accrued from all their local purchases of inputs and services necessary for production. Subsequently, they can request the return of these tax credits. But the central problem lies in the delay of this refund, which can extend for up to a year. This long period forces exporters to incorporate the financial cost of VAT into their prices, which in practice reduces their profitability. In many cases, this 21% financial surcharge exceeds the profit margin of the operation, directly affecting the competitiveness of the Argentine product in the international market.
This situation contrasts markedly with that of other countries in the region, such as Chile, where the same VAT refund process is completed in less than a month.
"An acceleration in VAT refund deadlines would be a high-impact, low-cost fiscal measure that could significantly improve the competitiveness of our exports. It is essential that the government focuses on optimizing these mechanisms so that exporters can operate under more favorable conditions," concludes Salomón.
Consequently, facing the end of 2025 and with an eye on 2026, it is necessary to have a foreign trade policy that seeks balance not through restriction, but through expansion. Fostering an approach between the growth curve of imports and exports is vital to guarantee the sustainability of Argentina's economic growth and strengthen the country's position in the global scenario.
The export structure has no resources on hand to expand, and consequently, any adjustment would have to be made on the side of imports, and the courier route would be the most at hand to cut. However, this is at odds with the economic plan.
